Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -145 COLG +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -2.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.2 (+7.8) | 136.3 (-2.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.7 (+7.3) | 137.9 (-3.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.3 (+8.7) | 137.8 (-3.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.1 (+7.9) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | AMER 70 – 66 COLG |
| Jan 8, 2026 | COLG 64 – 62 AMER |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | AMER 81 – 77 COLG |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AMER 66 – 64 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#255) | -4.8 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#202) | -1.06 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#216) | -1.29 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#143) | 0.472 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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