Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -120 COLG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.4 (+3.6) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.3 (+2.7) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.7 (+3.3) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.4 (+3.6) | 143.8 (-7.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | COLG 64 – 62 AMER |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMER 72 – 62 COLG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | AMER 81 – 77 COLG |
| Feb 25, 2024 | AMER 66 – 64 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#234) | -1.3 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#218) | -0.55 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#223) | -0.51 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#200) | 0.499 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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