Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MD -225 NEB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | MD -1.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.0 (+19.0) | 136.8 (-12.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.5 (+20.5) | 134.4 (-10.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.1 (+20.9) | 135.3 (-11.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.3 (+20.7) | 136.8 (-12.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NEB 74 – 61 MD |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MD 83 – 75 NEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MD 69 – 66 NEB |
| Feb 19, 2023 | NEB 70 – 66 MD |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MD 82 – 63 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 18-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#72) | 9.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#103) | 2.07 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#90) | 2.57 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#130) | 0.597 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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