Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MD -800 NEB +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MD -9.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -8.6 (+10.4) | 131.2 (+13.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -9.1 (+9.9) | 132.2 (+12.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -8.2 (+10.8) | 131.3 (+13.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -8.1 (+10.9) | 132.1 (+12.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NEB 74 – 61 MD |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MD 83 – 75 NEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MD 69 – 66 NEB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MD 73 – 51 NEB |
| Feb 19, 2023 | NEB 70 – 66 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#41) | 4.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#47) | 1.08 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#44) | 1.33 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#40) | 0.540 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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