Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NEB -120 MD +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -4.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.7 (-6.3) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -1.3 (-6.7) | 147.5 (+10.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.5 (-6.5) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.0 (-7.0) | 148.8 (+9.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NEB 74 – 61 MD |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MD 69 – 66 NEB |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MD 73 – 51 NEB |
| Feb 19, 2023 | NEB 70 – 66 MD |
| Jan 28, 2023 | MD 82 – 63 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#47) | 19.4 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#38) | 2.57 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#34) | 3.64 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#26) | 0.589 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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