Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -154 MINN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +9 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -1.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -3.3 (-12.3) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.8 (-10.8) | 145.1 (+11.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.1 (-10.1) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -1.9 (-10.9) | 145.7 (+11.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PSU 77 – 75 MINN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PSU 69 – 60 MINN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | MINN 69 – 61 PSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MINN 75 – 70 PSU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | PSU 76 – 69 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#102) | 6.5 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#153) | 0.56 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#140) | 0.88 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#178) | 0.499 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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