Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -280 MINN +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -10.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -8.5 (-16.5) | 142.4 (-12.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -8.7 (-16.7) | 142.3 (-12.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -9.1 (-17.1) | 143.7 (-13.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -8.7 (-16.7) | 144.6 (-14.6) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PSU 77 – 75 MINN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PSU 69 – 60 MINN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MINN 75 – 70 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MINN 83 – 74 PSU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | PSU 76 – 69 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#44) | 4.8 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#72) | 1.02 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#61) | 1.63 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#104) | 0.529 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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