We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Big Ten Conference · Bryce Jordan Center · February 1, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MINN -2.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money PSU +130 / MINN -155
Model Predictions
Spread Total PSU win
Actual PSU +2 152 Won
Massey MINN -1.6 (+3.6)
Massey Totals 143.5 (+8.5)
Bradley-Terry 40%
Weighted B-T 29%
Efficiency Plus ML MINN -1.3 (+3.3) 138.4 (+13.6) 44%
Baseline Tuned ML MINN -2.1 (+4.1) 140.0 (+12.0) 45%
Baseline ML MINN -1.3 (+3.3) 142.1 (+9.9) 33%
Baseline Plus ML MINN -2.3 (+4.3) 141.1 (+10.9) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2025 PSU 6960 MINN
Feb 5, 2025 MINN 6961 PSU
Mar 2, 2024 MINN 7570 PSU
Jan 27, 2024 MINN 8374 PSU
Feb 19, 2023 PSU 7669 MINN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PSU MINN
Overall 12-20 15-18
Conference 3-17 8-12
Home 9-8 13-4
Away 2-9 2-9
Neutral 1-3 0-5
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L3 L2
Avg Pts For 73.7 69.4
Avg Pts Against 79.3 68.5
Massey 2.6 (#127) 7.1 (#85)
Bradley-Terry 0.06 (#162) 1.01 (#90)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.01 (#164) 1.51 (#84)
RPI 0.500 (#176) 0.508 (#159)
Shooting & Four Factors PSU MINN
FG% 46.9% 45.2%
3PT% 33.3% 33.1%
REB / G 30.2 33.8
OREB / G 9.1 9.8
AST / TO 1.41 1.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.5% 52.7%
TOV% 14.2% 16.7%
ORB% 27.5% 29.5%
FT Rate 25.0% 27.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.8% 49.7%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 17.3%
DRB% 69.3% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 19.8% 22.6%

Game Analysis

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