Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | WIN +100 HPU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -2.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -0.1 (-2.1) | 152.7 (+11.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.6 (-3.6) | 153.4 (+10.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.0 (-3.0) | 155.1 (+8.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.1 (-2.1) | 156.7 (+7.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#147) | 2.7 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#156) | 1.19 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#157) | 1.73 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#153) | 0.544 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 37.0% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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