Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +400 MRMK -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +19 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -9.8 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -8.2 (-10.8) | 132.2 (-3.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -8.6 (-10.4) | 131.2 (-2.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -8.1 (-10.9) | 130.8 (-1.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -8.7 (-10.3) | 132.0 (-3.0) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | MRMK 71 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MRMK 75 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MRMK 65 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SFPA 62 – 46 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 13-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#349) | -1.1 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#337) | -0.47 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#347) | -0.62 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.383 (#344) | 0.489 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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