Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MRMK -1400 SFPA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -16.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -11.6 (-0.6) | 133.1 (-2.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -11.7 (-0.7) | 133.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -12.1 (-1.1) | 133.5 (-2.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -12.3 (-1.3) | 133.8 (-2.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 SFPA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MRMK 75 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MRMK 65 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SFPA 62 – 46 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 3-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | -14.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | -2.42 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#217) | -3.26 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#149) | 0.391 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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