Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +16 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -6.3 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -4.7 (-20.7) | 128.9 (-20.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -4.1 (-20.1) | 132.3 (-24.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -4.4 (-20.4) | 134.5 (-26.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -4.0 (-20.0) | 131.2 (-23.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | MRMK 71 – 60 SFPA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 SFPA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MRMK 75 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MRMK 65 – 64 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#282) | -9.1 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#267) | -2.80 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#275) | -3.34 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#254) | 0.360 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 25.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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