Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA +110 MRMK -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -3.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.5 (-7.5) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -0.8 (-7.8) | 133.9 (+9.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -1.5 (-8.5) | 135.3 (+7.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.4 (-7.4) | 133.3 (+9.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | MRMK 71 – 60 SFPA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MRMK 65 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SFPA 62 – 46 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 64.0 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#332) | -10.4 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#337) | -1.74 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#344) | -2.12 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#327) | 0.437 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 26.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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