Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -3.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -2.1 (-3.1) | 128.6 (+0.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -1.9 (-2.9) | 130.6 (-1.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -1.5 (-2.5) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -2.3 (-3.3) | 130.5 (-1.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | MRMK 71 – 60 SFPA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 SFPA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MRMK 75 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 15, 2022 | SFPA 62 – 46 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#318) | -9.9 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#331) | -1.91 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#328) | -2.42 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#324) | 0.426 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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