Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -350 L-MD +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -10.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -9.4 (-13.4) | 130.5 (+13.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -7.9 (-11.9) | 130.7 (+13.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -8.1 (-12.1) | 131.3 (+12.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -8.7 (-12.7) | 130.4 (+13.6) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#283) | -13.8 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#320) | -3.50 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#319) | -4.39 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#329) | 0.348 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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