Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -225 OMA +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +19 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -7.8 (-26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -5.4 (-24.4) | 162.5 (+0.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -5.5 (-24.5) | 158.2 (+4.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.6 (-23.6) | 158.7 (+4.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -5.2 (-24.2) | 160.3 (+2.7) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.1 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | -3.8 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#195) | -1.38 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#190) | -1.27 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#208) | 0.410 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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