Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +165 OMA -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +18 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | OMA -3.9 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -4.8 (-13.2) | 148.0 (-6.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -4.2 (-13.8) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -5.4 (-12.6) | 147.9 (-5.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -5.0 (-13.0) | 148.9 (-6.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OMA 91 – 72 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#333) | -3.4 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#332) | -0.57 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.53 (#348) | -0.88 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#353) | 0.466 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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