Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -650 DEN +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -12.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -10.5 (-1.5) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -8.8 (+0.2) | 146.0 (+1.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -10.1 (-1.1) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -10.2 (-1.2) | 146.9 (+0.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OMA 91 – 72 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#202) | -10.9 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -1.77 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#213) | -3.00 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#202) | 0.401 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 36.7% |
Game Analysis
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