Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -135 OMA +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +2 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -3.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -0.8 (-2.8) | 152.1 (+13.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -1.1 (-3.1) | 151.2 (+14.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -1.6 (-3.6) | 153.6 (+12.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -1.1 (-3.1) | 154.6 (+11.4) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OMA 91 – 72 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#249) | -5.5 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#271) | -1.17 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#282) | -1.37 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#259) | 0.436 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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