Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | OMA -155 DEN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -1.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -0.8 (+6.2) | 158.1 (+0.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -1.9 (+5.1) | 157.5 (+1.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -0.9 (+6.1) | 157.3 (+1.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -0.4 (+6.6) | 159.0 (+0.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OMA 91 – 72 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 84.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#244) | -3.5 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#251) | -0.78 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#247) | -0.96 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#259) | 0.468 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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