Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | OMA -111 DEN -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | OMA -0.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-34.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -0.4 (-3.4) | 152.1 (-23.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -0.3 (-2.7) | 151.4 (-22.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -0.5 (-3.5) | 152.4 (-23.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -0.3 (-3.3) | 150.7 (-21.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | OMA 91 – 72 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#255) | -4.8 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#287) | -0.91 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#279) | -1.14 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#300) | 0.460 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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