Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +310 UVA -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +17 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -6.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.7 (-10.3) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.9 (-9.1) | 129.4 (-8.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.7 (-10.3) | 130.2 (-9.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -7.2 (-9.8) | 130.8 (-9.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UVA 75 – 60 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-11 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 59.8 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#207) | 8.0 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#270) | 1.94 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#260) | 2.14 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#264) | 0.586 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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