Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -2000 UVA +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -17.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -14.8 (-0.8) | 133.7 (+14.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -11.7 (+2.3) | 134.8 (+13.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -14.3 (-0.3) | 131.4 (+16.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -14.4 (-0.4) | 131.2 (+16.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UVA 75 – 60 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#29) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#22) | 0.55 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#22) | 0.76 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#13) | 0.520 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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