Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UVA +195 LOU -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +20 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -4.3 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.8 (-17.2) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -3.7 (-16.3) | 129.7 (-9.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -4.3 (-15.7) | 123.3 (-3.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.5 (-17.5) | 129.8 (-9.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UVA 75 – 60 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#110) | 11.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#71) | 2.48 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#68) | 3.41 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#66) | 0.624 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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