Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -218 UVA +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -6.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -5.4 (-14.4) | 151.7 (-2.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LOU -5.6 (-14.6) | 152.3 (-3.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | LOU -5.4 (-14.4) | 152.1 (-3.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -5.5 (-14.5) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UVA 75 – 60 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 20.2 (#11) | 17.7 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#38) | 2.74 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#37) | 3.65 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#39) | 0.623 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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