Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -21.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -15.9 (-0.9) | 129.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -14.2 (+0.8) | 124.8 (+10.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -17.3 (-2.3) | 127.4 (+7.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -17.5 (-2.5) | 131.0 (+4.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-1 | 4-13 |
| Away | 6-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#38) | -7.2 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#13) | -1.61 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#16) | -1.23 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#11) | 0.427 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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