Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -1600 LOU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -16.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -15.1 (+8.9) | 126.3 (+3.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -13.3 (+10.7) | 130.2 (-0.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -14.2 (+9.8) | 130.2 (-0.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -14.0 (+10.0) | 129.1 (+0.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | UVA 75 – 60 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-11 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#64) | -4.1 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#46) | -1.54 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#61) | -1.90 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#52) | 0.411 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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