Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU +230 SAM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -6.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -5.2 (+2.2) | 154.0 (-7.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.0 (+3.0) | 155.7 (-8.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.7 (+3.7) | 155.0 (-8.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.3 (+2.3) | 155.1 (-8.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 84.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#227) | 6.9 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#202) | 1.82 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#213) | 1.93 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#190) | 0.573 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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