Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | APP -110 JMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | APP -1.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.4 (+4.6) | 145.8 (+12.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -0.3 (+5.7) | 147.3 (+10.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.6 (+4.4) | 139.7 (+18.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.5 (+4.5) | 140.8 (+17.2) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | JMU 69 – 58 APP |
| Jan 15, 2026 | APP 80 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | APP 58 – 50 JMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | APP 86 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | APP 59 – 55 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#83) | 8.9 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#76) | 1.95 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#89) | 2.12 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.545 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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