Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | JMU N/A APP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | APP -0.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.6 (+11.6) | 132.6 (-5.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.3 (+10.7) | 134.4 (-7.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -0.4 (+11.4) | 131.6 (-4.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.3 (+11.3) | 132.9 (-5.9) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | APP 80 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | APP 58 – 50 JMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | APP 86 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | APP 82 – 76 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | APP 59 – 55 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#233) | -1.0 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#212) | 0.16 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#219) | -0.06 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#193) | 0.516 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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