Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | APP -125 JMU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | APP -0.8 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.7 (+19.3) | 132.1 (+19.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.5 (+18.5) | 133.8 (+18.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.1 (+18.9) | 131.9 (+20.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.9 (+19.1) | 133.8 (+18.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | JMU 69 – 58 APP |
| Jan 15, 2026 | APP 80 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | APP 58 – 50 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | APP 82 – 76 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | APP 59 – 55 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | 1.7 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#202) | 0.37 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#210) | 0.65 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#188) | 0.537 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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