Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | APP -142 JMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.8 (+12.2) | 135.5 (+9.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.8 (+12.2) | 136.5 (+8.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.1 (+12.9) | 134.2 (+10.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.1 (+12.9) | 134.2 (+10.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | JMU 69 – 58 APP |
| Jan 18, 2025 | APP 58 – 50 JMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | APP 86 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | APP 82 – 76 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | APP 59 – 55 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#231) | -4.5 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#211) | -0.25 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#229) | -0.54 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#209) | 0.503 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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