Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -150 APP +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -3.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.5 (-9.5) | 131.2 (-23.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -3.1 (-11.1) | 130.6 (-22.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -1.5 (-9.5) | 131.9 (-23.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -1.4 (-9.4) | 133.7 (-25.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | JMU 69 – 58 APP |
| Jan 15, 2026 | APP 80 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | APP 86 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | APP 82 – 76 JMU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | APP 59 – 55 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#159) | 1.1 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#144) | -0.01 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#142) | -0.04 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#96) | 0.520 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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