Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -275 APP +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -7.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-39.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -6.7 (-10.7) | 148.5 (-34.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -7.6 (-11.6) | 148.7 (-34.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -7.2 (-11.2) | 146.6 (-32.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.7 (-10.7) | 145.8 (-31.8) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | JMU 69 – 58 APP |
| Jan 15, 2026 | APP 80 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | APP 58 – 50 JMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | APP 86 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | APP 82 – 76 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 12-2 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#56) | 6.5 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#22) | 0.96 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#33) | 1.08 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#89) | 0.535 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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