Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -600 GTWN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -14.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -14.0 (-6.0) | 146.5 (+13.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -12.7 (-4.7) | 143.4 (+16.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -12.6 (-4.6) | 144.6 (+15.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -12.5 (-4.5) | 145.0 (+15.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-5 | 7-12 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#49) | -0.5 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#59) | -0.46 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#47) | -0.17 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#70) | 0.462 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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