Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -115 PROV -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +21 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -2.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -3.4 (+17.6) | 138.9 (+26.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.2 (+19.8) | 139.5 (+25.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -3.6 (+17.4) | 139.4 (+25.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -3.4 (+17.6) | 139.9 (+25.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PROV 71 – 58 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#84) | 6.9 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#106) | 0.54 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#100) | 1.05 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#163) | 0.514 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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