Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -238 GTWN +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -7.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -5.4 (-8.4) | 157.3 (+1.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.5 (-9.5) | 159.3 (-0.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.5 (-8.5) | 157.0 (+2.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -5.7 (-8.7) | 156.7 (+2.3) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PROV 71 – 58 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#77) | 3.7 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#100) | 0.59 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#88) | 1.05 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#119) | 0.509 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.