Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +100 GTWN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -1.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.4 (+8.6) | 135.6 (+10.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -2.9 (+7.1) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.3 (+8.7) | 133.4 (+12.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.0 (+9.0) | 135.1 (+10.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PROV 71 – 58 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#92) | 7.8 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#130) | 1.20 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#95) | 1.31 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#137) | 0.543 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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