Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -500 GTWN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -10.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -9.4 (+8.6) | 142.3 (-12.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -9.7 (+8.3) | 143.2 (-13.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -9.7 (+8.3) | 143.0 (-13.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -9.5 (+8.5) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PROV 71 – 58 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-5 | 7-12 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#58) | -1.2 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#63) | -0.72 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#61) | -0.57 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#98) | 0.440 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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