Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +280 PROV -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +13 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -7.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.7 (-6.3) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.8 (-6.2) | 146.2 (-17.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -7.4 (-5.6) | 147.7 (-18.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.4 (-6.6) | 147.4 (-18.4) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-12 | 14-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#181) | 9.5 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#241) | 1.53 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#211) | 1.98 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#285) | 0.546 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.