Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -120 PROV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -1.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -2.4 (-1.4) | 156.3 (+2.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -2.1 (-1.1) | 157.6 (+1.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -1.8 (-0.8) | 159.6 (-0.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -1.3 (-0.3) | 155.9 (+3.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PROV 71 – 58 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#92) | 8.1 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#98) | 1.03 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#90) | 1.49 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#166) | 0.504 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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