Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Ohio Valley Conference · Jack Stephens Center · January 27, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LR -11.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money LR -700 / SEMO +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total LR win
Actual LR +5 127 Won
Massey LR -14.2 (-9.2) — —
Massey Totals — 156.4 (-29.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 87% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 94% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LR -9.4 (-4.4) 152.5 (-25.5) 83% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LR -9.9 (-4.9) 148.1 (-21.1) 86% ✓
Baseline ML LR -10.5 (-5.5) 148.9 (-21.9) 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LR -10.6 (-5.6) 152.1 (-25.1) 85% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 SEMO 70 – 65 LR
Jan 23, 2026 SEMO 70 – 65 LR
Mar 8, 2025 SEMO 78 – 59 LR
Feb 12, 2025 SEMO 57 – 45 LR
Jan 15, 2025 LR 73 – 71 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LR SEMO
Overall 21-13 9-22
Conference 14-4 4-14
Home 14-4 8-7
Away 6-6 1-14
Neutral 1-3 0-1
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L2 W1
Avg Pts For 77.3 64.5
Avg Pts Against 72.5 76.2
Massey -5.6 (#271) -16.1 (#357)
Bradley-Terry -1.18 (#284) -2.38 (#345)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.26 (#272) -3.21 (#348)
RPI 0.405 (#324) 0.373 (#352)
Shooting & Four Factors LR SEMO
FG% 45.7% 39.6%
3PT% 33.3% 28.9%
REB / G 35.9 31.8
OREB / G 11.5 9.3
AST / TO 1.20 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 44.6%
TOV% 16.6% 18.6%
ORB% 31.2% 24.2%
FT Rate 26.5% 18.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 17.1%
DRB% 68.8% 71.7%
Opp FT Rate 32.7% 32.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.