Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | LR -700 SEMO +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | LR -14.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -9.4 (-4.4) | 152.5 (-25.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -9.9 (-4.9) | 148.1 (-21.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -10.5 (-5.5) | 148.9 (-21.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -10.6 (-5.6) | 152.1 (-25.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SEMO 78 – 59 LR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SEMO 57 – 45 LR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LR 73 – 71 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#271) | -16.1 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#284) | -2.38 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#272) | -3.21 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#324) | 0.373 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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