Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -250 LR +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -8.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -5.1 (-0.1) | 142.7 (-7.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -5.8 (-0.8) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -6.0 (-1.0) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -5.0 (+0.0) | 143.5 (-8.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SEMO 78 – 59 LR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SEMO 57 – 45 LR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LR 73 – 71 SEMO |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LR 83 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#241) | -10.1 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#263) | -0.93 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#262) | -1.49 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#262) | 0.444 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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