Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LR -210 SEMO +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +12 | 102 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -4.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -3.2 (-15.2) | 135.5 (-33.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -4.9 (-16.9) | 132.5 (-30.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -2.9 (-14.9) | 132.4 (-30.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -3.2 (-15.2) | 134.8 (-32.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SEMO 78 – 59 LR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LR 73 – 71 SEMO |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LR 83 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#196) | -3.0 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#200) | -0.62 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#207) | -0.91 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#192) | 0.495 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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