Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Ohio Valley Conference · Jack Stephens Center · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SEMO -1.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money LR +114 / SEMO -135
Model Predictions
Spread Total LR win
Actual SEMO +5 135 Lost
Massey SEMO -3.2 (-1.8)
Massey Totals 145.3 (-10.3)
Bradley-Terry 39%
Weighted B-T 37%
Baseline Plus ML SEMO -2.8 (-2.2) 139.1 (-4.1) 37%
Model 4 ML SEMO -2.1 (-2.9) 137.2 (-2.2) 44%
Model 3 ML SEMO -2.5 (-2.5) 137.7 (-2.7) 39%
Baseline ML SEMO -2.6 (-2.4) 138.3 (-3.3) 40%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 23, 2026 SEMO 7065 LR
Mar 8, 2025 SEMO 7859 LR
Feb 12, 2025 SEMO 5745 LR
Jan 15, 2025 LR 7371 SEMO
Feb 23, 2024 LR 8361 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LR SEMO
Overall 12-20 20-13
Conference 9-11 14-6
Home 7-6 10-5
Away 5-13 8-7
Neutral 0-1 2-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 68.9 73.2
Avg Pts Against 74.2 72.3
Massey -9.8 (#306) -3.7 (#224)
Bradley-Terry -1.41 (#296) -0.46 (#217)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.93 (#300) -0.82 (#232)
RPI 0.447 (#281) 0.510 (#155)
Shooting & Four Factors LR SEMO
FG% 44.1% 44.7%
3PT% 35.5% 31.2%
REB / G 32.7 33.7
OREB / G 11.1 10.2
AST / TO 1.05 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.6% 50.3%
TOV% 18.9% 17.4%
ORB% 31.7% 30.0%
FT Rate 18.5% 26.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 18.8%
DRB% 63.4% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 33.7%

Game Analysis

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