Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LR +114 SEMO -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -3.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.8 (-2.2) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -2.1 (-2.9) | 137.2 (-2.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.5 (-2.5) | 137.7 (-2.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -2.6 (-2.4) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SEMO 78 – 59 LR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SEMO 57 – 45 LR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LR 73 – 71 SEMO |
| Feb 23, 2024 | LR 83 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#306) | -3.7 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#296) | -0.46 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#300) | -0.82 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#281) | 0.510 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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