Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO +320 LR -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +22 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | LR -7.9 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -8.4 (-13.6) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -7.3 (-14.7) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -8.6 (-13.4) | 144.3 (-0.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -8.1 (-13.9) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SEMO 70 – 65 LR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SEMO 78 – 59 LR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SEMO 57 – 45 LR |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LR 73 – 71 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#352) | -3.7 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#352) | -0.62 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.16 (#345) | -0.74 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#352) | 0.455 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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