Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +110 ILST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +4 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -3.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -1.2 (+2.8) | 136.7 (-24.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -1.8 (+2.2) | 135.1 (-23.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -1.5 (+2.5) | 135.5 (-23.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -1.9 (+2.1) | 138.3 (-26.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#224) | -3.1 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#167) | -0.20 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#183) | -0.19 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#144) | 0.476 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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