Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Missouri Valley Conference · Ford Center · January 27, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money EVAN +110 / ILST -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total EVAN win
Actual EVAN +4 112 Won
Massey EVAN -3.5 (+0.5) — —
Massey Totals — 135.9 (-23.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 73% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 69% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ EVAN -1.2 (+2.8) 136.7 (-24.7) 62% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML EVAN -1.8 (+2.2) 135.1 (-23.1) 59% ✓
Baseline ML EVAN -1.5 (+2.5) 135.5 (-23.5) 58% ✓
Baseline Plus ML EVAN -1.9 (+2.1) 138.3 (-26.3) 60% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 10, 2026 EVAN 88 – 80 ILST
Jan 1, 2026 ILST 73 – 47 EVAN
Mar 2, 2025 ILST 62 – 53 EVAN
Jan 9, 2025 EVAN 69 – 51 ILST
Mar 8, 2024 EVAN 59 – 53 ILST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EVAN ILST
Overall 17-18 15-17
Conference 6-14 9-11
Home 10-5 10-6
Away 4-11 4-8
Neutral 3-2 1-3
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 69.6 66.2
Avg Pts Against 74.0 68.0
Massey -3.3 (#224) -3.1 (#218)
Bradley-Terry 0.11 (#167) -0.20 (#197)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#183) -0.19 (#189)
RPI 0.514 (#144) 0.476 (#216)
Shooting & Four Factors EVAN ILST
FG% 44.6% 41.0%
3PT% 33.9% 27.1%
REB / G 33.7 35.5
OREB / G 7.7 10.7
AST / TO 1.18 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.4% 46.2%
TOV% 16.6% 17.2%
ORB% 21.9% 29.1%
FT Rate 19.3% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 17.7% 17.3%
DRB% 74.0% 75.1%
Opp FT Rate 19.4% 22.1%

Game Analysis

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