Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +210 ILST -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +18 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -8.2 (+26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -7.0 (+25.0) | 133.6 (-13.6) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.5 (+25.5) | 135.0 (-15.0) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -7.6 (+25.6) | 132.2 (-12.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -7.4 (+25.4) | 134.3 (-14.3) | 21% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ILST 86 – 79 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#314) | 3.2 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#297) | 0.45 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#280) | 0.65 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#316) | 0.516 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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