I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Illinois State Redbirds
53 59
FINAL Neutral Conference MVC
Evansville Purple Aces
Missouri Valley Conference · Enterprise Center (Neutral) · March 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -3.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money ILST -175 / EVAN +138
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual EVAN +6 112 Lost
Massey ILST -2.0 (-8.0)
Massey Totals 133.6 (-21.6)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 55%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -3.3 (-9.3) 131.5 (-19.5) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -2.2 (-8.2) 131.2 (-19.2) 63%
Baseline ML ILST -2.7 (-8.7) 129.3 (-17.3) 61%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -2.5 (-8.5) 132.5 (-20.5) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 10, 2026 EVAN 8880 ILST
Jan 1, 2026 ILST 7347 EVAN
Mar 2, 2025 ILST 6253 EVAN
Jan 9, 2025 EVAN 6951 ILST
Feb 18, 2024 ILST 8679 EVAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST EVAN
Overall 15-17 17-18
Conference 9-11 6-14
Home 10-6 10-5
Away 4-8 4-11
Neutral 1-3 3-2
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 66.2 69.6
Avg Pts Against 68.0 74.0
Massey -1.0 (#175) -2.9 (#217)
Bradley-Terry -0.03 (#169) -0.05 (#172)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.03 (#162) -0.18 (#180)
RPI 0.499 (#180) 0.494 (#189)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST EVAN
FG% 42.4% 44.6%
3PT% 28.9% 34.5%
REB / G 34.5 32.9
OREB / G 10.0 7.3
AST / TO 1.10 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 50.6%
TOV% 17.0% 16.5%
ORB% 28.9% 21.5%
FT Rate 25.9% 21.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 53.2%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 17.0%
DRB% 74.4% 74.5%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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