Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -175 EVAN +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -3.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.3 (+3.7) | 133.2 (+31.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.6 (+5.4) | 131.5 (+33.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -1.8 (+5.2) | 133.3 (+31.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -2.1 (+4.9) | 133.5 (+31.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#187) | -1.6 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | 0.39 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#176) | 0.27 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#180) | 0.517 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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